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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 6:05pm Post subject: 1/2 - donking AQo on A-high board
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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UTG is running 16/12/2.1 and raising 10% utg. Is a losing player over a decent sample and goes to showdown 28%. No history I'm aware of. MP is a big fish, running 38/8/1.9 and is very loose passive.
Thoughts on donking and river plan?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
MP ($156.40)
CO ($216.90)
Button ($217.25)
SB ($176.35)
Hero (BB) ($200.25)
UTG ($219.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , Q
UTG bets $7, MP calls $7, 3 folds, Hero calls $5
Flop: ($22) 6, 9 , A (3 players)
Hero bets $15, UTG calls $15, MP calls $15
Turn: ($67) 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $30, UTG calls $30, 1 fold
River: ($127) 2 (2 players)
Hero... ($148 behind) |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:09pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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Ugh this is really bad. FOLD PREFLOP!!!
UTG's range for continuing to your donk is sets, AK and sometimes AQ. This is pretty bad spew. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:18pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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| I think pre-flop is close, but utg is definitely calling the flop with AJ and AT (if he raises it pre) and probably one street with JJ-KK. Obviously I donk the turn expecting UTG to fold a lot and fishy MP to continue with worse aces. I'm surprised you think this is terrible. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:30pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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If UTG ever had AJ/AT in his range sure. But he has 10% of hands. Most of those will fold to your donk bet, however, the overwhelming majority of those hands that continue are only ones that you are doing very poorly against.
Preflop isn't even debatable, it's a very easy fold. Well, I suppose there could be an argument made for squeezing to try to push UTG out of the pot and induce the fish to call you with his random garbage. I can't come up with a good reason to call though.
Think about the motivations of a player playing 16/12 and how often he thinks hands like KK-JJ and AJ/AT are strong enough to continue here. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:54pm Post subject:
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Strike 1
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 500
WPP: 63
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| I think betting the turn here is spew. It really over represents your hand IMO. But I don't understand why you are betting the turn. I think that the board is dry enough that he can just call with all the sets and two pairs or whatever and let you value own yourself. I think as played c/f |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 9:07pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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marshall: AJo and ATs are top 10%. The guy's not a "good" 16/12, he's 10% utg, so his stats must be pretty flat across positions. meh, I'm just arguing for the sake of arguing, you're probably right.
red: again, I bet the turn for value from the fish, not utg |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 9:34pm Post subject:
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Strike 1
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 500
WPP: 63
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| I'm fully aware of that, but what is utg folding. Or are you still convinced that your ahead of his range? |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 10:39pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 02 Mar 2006
Posts: 3558
WPP: 84
Location: right here
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utg is only folding stuff we're ahead of, but I do think we're ahead of his range. utg is not good, he's definitely peeling at least KK/QQ to a single donk bet imo.
Board: Ac 9d 6h 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.765% 49.80% 11.97% 6705 1611.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 38.235% 26.27% 11.97% 3537 1611.00 { QQ+, ATs+, AJo+ } |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 10:55pm Post subject:
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Strike 1
Joined: 30 Oct 2007
Posts: 500
WPP: 63
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Board: 6h 9d Ac 9c
Hand 0: 54.575% 44.11% 10.46% 757 179.50 { AhQs }
Hand 1: 45.425% 34.97% 10.46% 600 179.50 { QQ+, 99, 66, A9s+, AJo+ }
Also you could argue that if he's peeling TT-KK hes also peeling some 9x hands. Not to mention your still betting against UTG despite trying to value bet against the fish only. So your bet still ought to have purpose because he is still in the pot. Like I said if UTG does anything but fold you lose the pot which seems really bad. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 11:28pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 592
WPP: 113
Location: Montreal, Canada
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| wow i'm never folding this pf (why are we folding? reverse implied odds?) but that's just me and i guess i have a relatively high vpip. I'm not sure about donking here....as played I would c/fold the river 100% confident that i'm folding worst hand but also expecting to see him check back aj/a10 and some other suited ace sometimes. I guess c/call flop and reevaluate turn is standard in this spot. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 7:00am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3728
WPP: 82
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 11:20am Post subject: Re: 1/2 - donking AQo on A-high board
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 3294
WPP: 87
Location: Toronto'ish
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| zook wrote: | | UTG is running 16/12/2.1 and raising 10% utg. |
I don't think folding pre is bad at all. You're OOP, will be hard to win any kind of big pot and more likely to use a medium sized pot.
As played, I like genitruc's idea of a small block on river. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 12:01pm Post subject:
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Almost as bad as that idiot redgrape
Joined: 29 Oct 2004
Posts: 6593
WPP: 74
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I think its a fold preflop.
Flop lead seems bad too, don't think I want to build a pot here. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 4:43pm Post subject:
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Almost as bad as that idiot heybude
Joined: 06 Aug 2006
Posts: 3061
WPP: 71
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| IowaSkinsFan wrote: | I think its a fold preflop.
Flop lead seems bad too, don't think I want to build a pot here. |
i think preflop is fine with the extra caller. But i agree with you about leading, our hand is too weak against utgs preflop range to want to build a pot here. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 7:46pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 1147
WPP: 64
Location: Manc U.K.
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| I think pf is fine due to the fish, I also don't hate leading as sure utg is going to fold alot but when the fish comes along we're nearly always ahead and are looking to get 3 streets. Once utg and mp call I'm worried about utg and when the 9 turns that hits mps range hard plus we're often already behind utg so I'm just c/fing. As played I'm c/fing river. |
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Posted: Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 8:26pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3728
WPP: 82
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| ATOTHEC101 wrote: | | I think pf is fine due to the fish, I also don't hate leading as sure utg is going to fold alot but when the fish comes along we're nearly always ahead and are looking to get 3 streets. Once utg and mp call I'm worried about utg and when the 9 turns that hits mps range hard plus we're often already behind utg so I'm just c/fing. As played I'm c/fing river. | i like the lead because of the fish in the hand... too often, KK QQ and JJ will check back from utg and we ll miss a chance at 3 streets of value from the fish because of it |
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Posted: Mon, 09 Nov 2009, 10:22pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2009
Posts: 56
WPP: 62
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| So between our 3 options PF. Whats the best order? As played would we be better off Check calling? Do you guys think nits range is wider for cbetting/leading than for calling here? |
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Posted: Tue, 10 Nov 2009, 8:25am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 13 Feb 2005
Posts: 328
WPP: 315
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| Assuming UTG does have KK/QQ w/e that is going to check back. Then checking isn't that bad because on the turn, if the fish has anything that we would have got 3 streets from, he will likely bet with anyway - to which we can C/R! missed street of value problem solved? |
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Posted: Tue, 10 Nov 2009, 12:03pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3728
WPP: 82
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| Toadstool wrote: | | Assuming UTG does have KK/QQ w/e that is going to check back. Then checking isn't that bad because on the turn, if the fish has anything that we would have got 3 streets from, he will likely bet with anyway - to which we can C/R! missed street of value problem solved? | fish call down so much lighter when you donk than when you CR (oh noez he s tarping me!) |
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Posted: Tue, 10 Nov 2009, 4:16pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1014
WPP: 93
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| I still think calling really sucks. Folding is likely best, but 3bet squeezing is probably okay given you don't look to play a big pot with UTG and you do look to play one with the fish. |
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Posted: Tue, 10 Nov 2009, 5:36pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 3728
WPP: 82
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| i think it s close enough that I d fold some pre from SB but call always from BB |
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Posted: Tue, 10 Nov 2009, 10:29pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2009
Posts: 56
WPP: 62
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| Marshall28 wrote: | | I still think calling really sucks. Folding is likely best, but 3bet squeezing is probably okay given you don't look to play a big pot with UTG and you do look to play one with the fish. |
This is wat I's be thinkin. |
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