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Posted: Thu, 08 May 2008, 9:08am Post subject: AQo in free-fire zone |
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Flush
Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270
WPP: 82
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PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q , A .
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (17 SB) 4 , 3, 5 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero...
SB 39/0/0.5 (23 hands), raises the nuts post-flop but does not cap
UTG+1 32/4/1.4 (0.9 FAF,73 hands), limped & called with AKo in EP, limped KQo in MP (so I'd say TT+, KQs+), c-bets regularly.
MP2 45/20/7.0 (20 hands but *lots* of raises), limped 67o in EP then bet/3bet a gutshot and bluffed turn & river when he missed. Did much the same, coldcalling J8s, raising FD, bluffing turn & river.
Is there any reason on earth to stick around, *knowing* that MP2 will raise behind me? |
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Posted: Fri, 09 May 2008, 6:36am Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 30 Aug 2007
Posts: 26
WPP: 131
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It's close between calling and raising here I think. It's very likely someone is holding TT+ or AK. You can't think your in front of everyone here. Though the pot is big and raising for information may be a good option. UTG could be weak and just putting in a feeler bet or could be hoping to be raised. You could still be ahead of UTG and raising here might get someone to fold a better hand like a small PP or a hand that could out draw you like KQ or AJ.
I would raise, call if it's 3-bet and re-evaluate the turn or fold to a 4-bet. I think the worst card for you would be an Ace since AK or Axs (with 1 pair already) could hang around. Having said all that you are probably only drawing to 3 Queens and 3 deuces after discounting which I would give about 4.5 outs. Perhaps giving up the hand on the flop might be the best play afterall... 
Disclaimer: AQ is my biggest losing hand in limit |
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Posted: Fri, 09 May 2008, 8:39am Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270
WPP: 82
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| Nexter wrote: | | Though the pot is big and raising for information may be a good option. |
I cringed right there, hearing the echo of the god-like voice of NotedPokerAuthority echoing across the Internet.
| Nexter wrote: | | You could still be ahead of UTG and raising here might get someone to fold a better hand like a small PP or a hand that could out draw you like KQ or AJ. |
I could also easily be ahead of MP2 who could have ATC. Your count of outs is probably about right. My best guess is I'll be paying two bets to see the turn, but that leaves me with 10:1 ignoring implied odds (assuming that SB will fold to the raise; it's probably break-even between two extra bets and the hazard of him hanging around). That sounds like I should grit my teeth and call. |
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Posted: Sat, 10 May 2008, 2:56am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 689
WPP: 132
Location: UK
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Pot's too big to fold now. I call and see what develops.
I'm curious as to why you 3bet an UTG+1 player who only raises 4% pf. The hand range you put him on is more like 10% and he is UTG+1. I think I would fold pretty much anything but AA, KK, AK in this situation. |
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Posted: Fri, 16 May 2008, 10:49am Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270
WPP: 82
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| Umm...TT+, KQs+ is a 4.1% hand range...which doesn't make mine a good bet. Poking around in 'Stove it looks like that range has about a 2:1 equity advantage against my hand. I guess I think AQo is a better hand than it is. |
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Posted: Sat, 17 May 2008, 6:37am Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 689
WPP: 132
Location: UK
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| Sorry but when you say TT+, KQs+, are you including any unpaired Aces in this? |
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Posted: Sun, 18 May 2008, 7:38pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 07 Aug 2007
Posts: 270
WPP: 82
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Sorry about the lack of clarity:
Pairs AA-TT
AKs,AKo,AQs
KQs |
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