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Poker Strategy II - Analyzing Results
Published: 2005-12-25
 Today, let's talk about what we do with our results. Most dedicated players keep
meticulous records but aside from determining whether you're winning or losing, analyzing
what they mean can be a tricky business. Don't jump to invalid conclusions just because
they seem to fit. There are just so many variables at work that short term results can be
misleading as to their genesis. Regular readers of the Improving Performance series may
recall a column several months ago wherein I described my friend Jon's playing of
Queen/Jack offsuit and how he used that experience to improve his game. Jon recently
related to me that he began to really focus on his opponents' tendencies as a variable in
his game which he felt could use some honing. In fact, what really made him realize how
important this element is was the fact that he began playing multiple games at one time on
the internet and jumping back and forth only allowed him to play his cards and position.
Since he wasn't learning how his opponents played, he felt his results were suffering.
Whether on the internet or in real world card rooms, studying your opponents' tendencies
is a critical part of becoming a winning player. Jon, with his usual passion to improve,
began really studying his opponents and since he played with the same general field of
competitors on a regular basis started to really build a "book" on several of them. So
much so, he began to feel that these perceived weaker opponents were actually playing with
their cards face up. "I've really been in the zone since I know these opponents'
tendencies so well", he recently crowed. "My recent results prove this out as I've been
booking wins on a regular basis", he continued.
Well, certainly focusing on your opponents' tendencies will greatly improve your game but
were the short term positive results that Jon experienced directly attributable to his
improved focus on competitors? Maybe, maybe not! Don't let short term results delude you
into thinking you can 100% attribute their cause. There are so many variables that it just
isn't realistic to make this conclusion Can you say......a run of good cards? Can you
say.......catching lucky while your poorly playing opponents aren't? You get the idea.
Now, while I don't necessarily agree with Jon's conclusions regarding his short term
results, I do admire his zeal to improve his game and how he goes about it. Our goal for
this session is to, once again, emulate my friend Jon's tenacity to improve. He picks
elements of his game that he believes could use honing and then concentrates on that
element until he sees significant improvement That, my friends, is how you become a
consistent winner........both in poker and in the game of life. So, just maybe Jon was
right and his opponents were playing with their cards face up. In closing, I'd like to add
that Jon and I have a symbiotic relationship in so far as our frequent strategy
discussions where we may well have different perspectives but these discussions help us
both to improve our games. I'd recommend that you find a buddy, who's game you respect, to
discuss strategy with away from the table to help you improve your game. See you
next "TIME".
By Tom Leonard
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Poker's lucky streak seen fading in US shops
Published: 2005-12-22
 By Christian Plumb and Paritosh Bansal
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The worldwide poker industry appears to have hit every possible inside straight, flush and full house that it could accumulating a large pot of cash in the process.
But as this holiday season nears an end, the industry's luck seems to be running out as boxed sets of cards and chips are discounted, ratings fade for some poker-themed television shows and shares of a poker-linked stock slump.
From televised celebrity poker tournaments to Internet gambling sites, to thronging tables at Las Vegas casinos and even a weekly column in The New York Times, poker remains an obsession.
Industry group American Gaming Association found the level of interest in poker rose significantly in 2004, with consumer spending on the game in Nevada and New Jersey increasing to $151.7 million, or 45 percent over the previous year.
Yet there are signs interest is waning among some of the demographic groups who fueled the craze.
"It is a pop fad," said Bill Thompson, author and professor of public administration at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "Fads pass."
Poker sets, once displayed prominently at his local Walgreen Co. (WAG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) store, have been moved further back into the store, he said.
"It may be reducing down to the niche market, which would be people in their 20s, macho-man type of people," he said. "Parents aren't looking to buy little sets."
In the last few Christmas seasons, stores like Toys R Us did a booming business in poker chips, said Sean McGowan, an analyst at Harris Nesbit. But now chains like Target Corp. (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) are deeply discounting the sets to move them off the shelves.
"The people who are obviously most interested in it obviously went out and did it already," McGowan said, noting that his own school-age son, who once obsessively played, has cooled on the game. "He doesn't even talk about it."
RISKY BET
Ratings for poker shows and tournaments, which mainstream sports networks like ESPN rushed to televise in recent years, are no longer growing as fast.
"As far as we can tell, the big poker rooms have continued to grow, but global ratings for poker telecasts around the world have been seeing retrenchment," said Eugene Christiansen, chief executive of Christiansen Capital Advisors. "The future is not going to be like the past year at all."
He said that was a sign that global viewership was maturing.
Steven Lipscomb, chief executive of gaming entertainment group WPT Enterprises Inc. (WPTE.OQ: Quote, Profile, Research), which owns the still-popular World Poker Tour television show, said the poker market was "still bubbling."
"We are in what I believe to be the early stages of a very long growth curve," he said. "If we were to be on the same growth scale that we were in ... we would be doing NFL-type numbers. And I don't think our expectations are that we will have 20 million people tuning in."
Some investors who rushed to capitalize on the poker craze have gotten burned.
Shares in WPT have lost more than 50 percent this year after briefly surging in July when U.S. poker champion Doyle Brunson made an unsolicited $700 million offer to buy the company.
The bid, which later expired, is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
"These cult fad stocks always end up in disaster," said Ivan Feinseth of New York-based advisory firm Matrix USA, noting that the company loses money and calling the stock overvalued despite rapid revenue growth.
Unlike England, where several online gaming stocks are listed, poker has not blossomed as an area for investors in the United States, where Internet gambling remains illegal.
Christiansen said telecommunication companies based in the United States had not bought into poker rooms either because of the legal issues.
He said interest in televised poker -- an important factor in the growth of the game -- continued to increase globally, although at a slower pace and at different rates in different countries.
"Nothing can grow to the sky," he said.
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