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Stud Poker Strategy - Death Spirals (part 2)
Published: 2005-11-20
 Let's continue down the death spiral we started. You remember the beginning don't you? You had a
long run of bad cards after being down $200 in a $10/20 game. You had a hand that you tried to win
on a bluff, you pushed it hard all the way through and you lost. You turned your losing one small
bet gambit into an eight small bet loss by not stopping when your ante steal didn't work.
Well here's what happened after this hand was over.
You didn't go on tilt and just blow the $300's worth of chips that remained from your initial rack
of $500. No, you didn't do that. You're too good a player to completely lose control, start
raising maniacally, and blow off your chips in a fit of peak.
But you did make further mistakes.
Your first mistake took place immediately after the hand ended. You had just lost $80 stupidly and
futilely and were really steamed. You were thinking about it, distracted and bothered by it as the
next hand was dealt. You were kicking yourself as you looked at your hand of (Ks3d)Ah and berating
yourself for your bad play as you readied your hand for the muck while the players in front of you
acted.
What was the mistake? Well, had you been paying attention, instead of lolling around in self pity,
you would have noticed that everyone had folded to you, the bring-in had a 3c, and you probably
would have won the pot if you had raised with your Ace against his unlikely-to-be-paired 3c. But
you didn't notice it. You folded. That was a mistake. One more spin down the death spiral.
You should have left the table while you were distracted. But who can do that - admit that you're
not at your best and walk away for a while?
The death spiral continued to spin downward for the next few hands, as you only half-heartedly
paid attention - still thinking about the $80 you threw away, still kicking yourself. And so you
put your actual play - your action in the real world - into automatic pilot. You called a couple
of times with hands you should have folded. You folded some hands that had some stealing
potential, and you missed some of the clues given off by your opponents - clues you would have
caught had you been 100% into the action - focused on the game and the play and the cards and what
was happening.
One more turn of the death spiral took place when you actually had a hand. You had a pair of wired
Jacks with a suited Queen. (JhJd)Qd. What a pretty hand! What a nice relief from all of the
garbage you'd been dealt for the last few hours.
You were early in the action, with the bring-in to your right, and so you raised - so happy were
you to finally have something that was pretty instead of ugly. You raised and a King re-raised
you. The guy with the King was well known by you. He wasn't imaginative. He was what you'd have
called an ABC player - strictly by the book. But that didn't register. You only knew that you had
this beautiful hand. You weren't about to let it go.
And, let's face it, you could make trips without him having a clue. You were a sharp player. You
knew that he probably had Kings and put you on Queens. But since you really had Jacks, you could
hit a Jack, bet it, get raised, and then really suck in your opponent for a ton of action until
the River.
The fact that there were only two Jacks that could create this magical scenario didn't faze you.
You were looking for action, looking to get your money back, and looking to hit that Jack. So you
called.
The next card didn't appear to help either of you. He bet his King and you, thinking that it was
still the lower $10 tier of betting in this $10/20 game, concluded that it was worth another $10
to have a chance of hitting a Jack on Fifth Street when the bets doubled. So you called again.
And then. lo and behold, you hit that Jack on Fifth Street giving you the trips you so desired.
Your opponent got a second King and bet $20.00.
So focused on your hand and your intentions and your prior losses and your frustration, you didn't
really think too hard about what he was likely to have. You noticed the paired door card of
course. You're a good player and know that it's usually a sign that an aggressive opponent who had
bet his card in the past has made trips. But your trips were secret. So he might well have been
trying to push you with only two pair. He could have a pocket pair like you, after all. Or he
could have been bluffing initially with his re-raise. (The fact that he was an ABC player receding
into the background of your frenzied mind).
You're just thinking trip Jacks and possible full-house and seeing that pot. And then you remember
something that worked once and that you read in a poker book or article. You remember somewhere
that someone somehow raised a guy who was representing trips to really see if he had the trips. If
he had the trips he'd raise back. Then you'd know what he had and could take the necessary action.
So you, with the wonderfully hidden trip Jacks raised this guy.
And then this guy did something that he, as a regular ABC player, rarely did. He checked his down
cards. That's right. He peaked at his down cards again!
A weird move for him. He was a solid player. You knew, when you were thinking straight, that he
always knew what his down cards were. He wasn't the type of player to forget. But you weren't
thinking clearly. And so this move of his, which you normally would have written off as just a bad
ploy - just some ham actor shtick - caused you to smile knowingly - aware now that he really just
had Kings up - since he had to check and wanted to just remind himself what his second pair was.
Well in retrospect, such a conclusion doesn't seem to hold much water. But at the time you were
sure that he was really weak. And so when he raised you called, believing that you had a 50/50
chance of having the best hand and also believing that you had a chance to make a full house, even
if he did have trip Kings. Plus you looked at the pot, concluded that it was too big to pass up,
and so you called.
Sixth Street and your opponent didn't appear to improve. You don't catch a full house - but you
still have those beautifully well hidden trip Jacks. The Kings bet. You look at the $180 pot and
think that you can't fold now. So you call. On the River you don't get your full house. But you
also know that you must call his $20 bet. Sure enough, he bets $20. And then you get a giddy flash
of insight. Maybe he really does only have Kings up. Maybe you should raise. What the Hell, you
think. It's only $20 more. So you raise. He raises you back. You know you must call. And so you
do.
He turns over Kings Full. Oooouch! That one really hurt. You not only lost, you made yourself look
foolish to yourself. How could you be so stupid as to raise into a guy representing at least trip
Kings and actually having Kings Full.
You spiral ever downward. But you haven't hit the bottom. You're not dead yet. Not yet. But the
end is near
A.Adams
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Stud Poker Strategy - Death Spirals (part 1)
Published: 2005-11-18
 You've been there, I know it. If you're a serious player who plays in serious games with
strangers, on line or in card rooms, you've been there. It's the bottom of the death spiral. And
it isn't a pretty place.
There are all sorts of death spirals. Here's one.
After an hour or two of tight, thoughtful play, you're down to about $300 after staring with $500.
You've done your best, focused your attention, tried to take advantage of situations as they've
been presented to you. But the cards just weren't there. Maybe they started out strong - or maybe
just scary to your opponents. But your value bets didn't pan out because your hand went south. And
your bluffs and semi-bluffs failed to win you the pot. So you're down $200.
You've been at it for a couple of hours. You've had a long, long run of unplayable hands. So
you've folded many hands in a row. You still think you're playing well, but you're getting a
little bored and frustrated at the bad run of cards and the resulting lack of meaningful action.
You decide to bust out of your tight image, at least for a hand. You've committed yourself to some
aggressive play as soon as you get anything close to a playable hand.
You're dealt (8h Th)Ks. A 3d is the bring-in and is four or five to your right. She brings it in
for the $3.00 and gets a caller before the action gets to you. Three players remain plus the bring-
in. You decide to complete it to $10 - certainly a bit of a wild raise for you. But your Kings are
fully live, no Aces are exposed and you figure you might win the antes and the bring-ins while
perking up this dreadful game and changing your rocky image..
The ante steal fails. Two players call you - the bring-in with a 3d and some guy with the Js. Your
King is fully live; one each of your other cards have been folded.
You get a the Qh on Fourth Street giving you (8h Th)Ks Qh. The Jack gets an 8 and the 3 gets a
suited Ace. The 3h-Ah bets; the Js-8d calls and it's to you. You figure you have a Straight draw
and a Flush draw and four cards that are all at least pretty high. It's still the lower tier of
betting and there are two other players in. With the pot odds and your outs you figure it's a
borderline call. But you haven't played many hands lately - so you convince yourself to make the
call.
On Fifth Street you pair your 8 with (8h Th)KS Qh 8c. You see (xx)3d-Ah-Kd and (xx) Js-8c-Qs. The
Ace is high and bets. The Jack calls. You figure that you have a shot at trips, two pair or even a
straight or a flush. And it's three-way action. So you call too.
On Sixth Street you don't improve. But apparently neither do your opponents. The Ace bets, the
Jack calls, and you figure that the pot is so large you're committed to calling now. On the River
you catch another Ten for two pair. The Ace bets. The Jack folds. You figure that the pot odds
justify a call - just in case he was bluffing. So you call and you lose Aces over Threes.
You're continuing down the death spiral. It's not that any individual decision was very wrong. But
the momentum of the hand carried you toward increasingly expensive compounding mistakes. When your
ante steal didn't work you should have quit. But you became improperly committed to pushing the
hand until you won. And so you lost eight small bets instead of only one.
Let's face it. It's hard to admit defeat when you began as the aggressor. And yet, to win in the
long run, we frequently have to do just that. If our raise on Third Street, which may have been
ill conceived to begin with, doesn't work, we should check and fold on Fourth Street if we don't
hit the right card. And if by Fifth Street we still haven't improved, we shouldn't just bet in an
attempt to win. Sometimes a tactical retreat is the best way to halt our downward death spiral.
A.Adams
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