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Sometimes you can't get read on opponent
Published: 2005-10-01
 BY STEVE ROSENBLOOM
Chicago Tribune
Because poker is more about people than cards and chips, it's imperative that you pay attention to your opponents all the time. Determine whether the player is aggressive or passive, tight or loose.
And sometimes, even that isn't enough. Because in tournaments, tables get broken and players get moved, so there isn't always enough time to get an accurate idea of the kind of player you're facing.
With 13 players remaining in the World Poker Tour's World Poker Finals at Foxwoods Casino Resort last November, Annie Duke drew A-J of hearts after a player newly moved to her table opened the pot for $50,000. Duke raised it to $200,000.
"I knew that his hand wasn't huge," Duke said, "and if I know his hand isn't huge and I have A-J of hearts, I'm going to come over the top of him because even against a lot of hands that call, I'm going to be even money.
"Given that I thought his hand wasn't that big, I assumed I would raise and pick up the money that's lying out there, and that's great.
"Since he was so timid all the time he was at the table, I said he's someone who'll lay down hands if he's weak."
Then again, maybe not. Duke's opponent held pocket 8s and moved all in, calling the $200,000 and pushing in another $80,000.
"There was no fold for me," said Duke, who plays at Ultimatebet.com.
"Mathematically, I got a huge price because I was even money and I was getting great odds," (better than 5-1 in a hand where she was almost 50-50 with two overcards).
The flop came J-8-6.
"The first card was a jack, and I said, 'Yes,' " Duke said. "Then an 8 came right behind it."
The turn came a 3. The river came a 6. Duke's seemingly timid opponent made a full house and doubled up.
"Erik Seidel was at the other table, and I went over there and told him about the hand," said Duke, who endorses D&D Tournament Poker software. "He goes, 'Why would you do that to him? Obviously he's not going to lay a hand down.' Erik had played with him the whole second day. So, he knew. I didn't know.
"It's interesting, because as you're making judgments about people, sometimes you make a judgment where they're just getting a weird distribution of cards.
"Pay attention to what's going on, and then understand that's not necessarily what's going on."
If Duke had known that her opponent was someone who wouldn't lay down a hand once he got involved, she would've mucked the A-J and waited to trap him with a big hand because the way to counter a tight-aggressive player is to raise with strong hands instead of draws.
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CASSAVA IPO LOWER THAN EXPECTED
Published: 2005-10-01
 Analysts blame Party Gaming online poker pessimism
London analysts were this week blaming the lower than expected debut on the London stock exchange of Cassava Enterprises on market sentiment affected by pessimistic comments from the CEO of Party Gaming.
The BBC reported that PG's comments that online poker may be running out of steam could be the cause for the fall in share price experienced this week.
Online gaming firm Cassava saw its shares fall by 12.3p in London trading, after launching at 175 pence, a price valuing it at around GBP 590 million ($1bn). Initially, the shares jumped 5 percent, before falling 12 percent to 162 pence. But by the close of trading they had recovered slightly to 170 pence.
Institutional dealers started trade on Thursday, with full trading on Monday.
The firm is the latest to come to market, although confidence in the sector was recently hit when rival Partygaming warned growth may slow.
Cassava / 888 is 90 percent controlled by two Israeli families and run by Gibraltar-based Cassava, which runs two other sites - online casinos Pacific Poker and Reef Club.
Shares in 888 were down to 162.7 pence in mid-afternoon London trading. CEO John Anderson said there had been plenty of appetite among institutions for the shares.
He added: “We are delighted that 888’s IPO has attracted such strong support among leading UK and European institutional investors.”
More than 20 million people are registered to use its portfolio of websites.
John Anderson said: "We have a clear strategy for creating sustainable shareholder value by becoming the market leader in the online gaming industry and continuing to provide our members with a comprehensive range of gaming activities in a secure and trusted environment."
In early September the market cooled towards the sector after Partygaming warned of slow growth, and its shares fell by 30 percent. "We don't know the track record on a historical basis of these online gambling companies, " David Buik, of Cantor Index, told the BBC on Thursday. "We know what we will make this year and next year, but we don't know what they will be doing in five years' time."
He said it was "too early" to say if the online gambling bubble had burst, but remarked that 888 was a "well-run company". "They haven't been too ambitious on the [flotation] price, which is a good sign."
In early September, 888 said that net gaming revenue from its casino business was up 14.2 percent in the first half of 2005 compared with a year ago. Net gaming revenue from its poker interests jumped by 226 percent, although the firm said it did not expect growth to continue at this rate.
Investors said 888's IPO pricing was sensible, and that compared with PartyGaming it was less exposed to poker and the risky United States.
"Overall there's a better spread of business and the management team comes across well, so within this marketplace 888 seems like a reasonable proposition," said John Wilson, investment director of UK equities at 888 shareholder Standard Life Investments
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