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Columnist Jeff Haney: Enormous field lengthens odds at WSOP
Published: 2005-06-22
 Columnist Jeff Haney: Enormous field lengthens odds at WSOP
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.
It's unusual to see an event in which the person favored to win is listed at odds of nearly 300-1.
Yet that's the case with wagering on the main event of the 2005 World Series of Poker, as posted by online sports book Pinnacle, based in Curacao.
"It certainly has its challenges," Simon Noble of Pinnacle said of making betting lines on the no-limit Texas hold 'em world championship, a tournament that could attract upwards of 6,600 entrants this year.
The tournament, which commands a $10,000 entry fee, begins July 7 at the Rio. Last year's main event, held at Binion's downtown, had a field of 2,576 players.
Nevada casinos are not permitted to accept wagers on the winner of a poker tournament, according to Keith Copher, the state Gaming Control Board's chief of enforcement.
You see, tournament poker is not considered a sport under state regulations -- a massive amount of TV coverage by ESPN and a recent spate of poker articles in Sports Illustrated notwithstanding.
"No, they cannot (take action on the WSOP)," Copher said. "Any wagering has to be based on the outcome of an athletic event."
Old-timers might remember sheets of odds on the WSOP winner floating around downtown casinos years ago, but that was an earlier age, when maverick bookmakers would also try to generate action on wacky propositions like where Skylab would land.
Any WSOP odds that pop up in Las Vegas today would be for amusement only, Copher said.
"Casinos will put up lines on certain events, such as the presidential race, but they will not take action on it," Copher said. "They are just for fun," or to generate discussion, he said.
Oddsmakers at Pinnacle, unencumbered by such regulations and operating in what we euphemistically call a legal "gray area," set lines on 33 individual players to win the WSOP championship tournament, with young poker superstar Daniel Negreanu a 277-1 favorite, followed by Phil Ivey at 294-1 and Phil Hellmuth at 314-1.
"It's mostly been small wagers coming in, people just having fun," Noble said. "The only significant amount of money that has come in on any individual was on Phil Ivey, but no very large wagers are coming in."
Pinnacle (pinnaclesports.com) also has odds on about 130 individual players to advance to the final table, and another proposition asking which player from a group of 30 will place highest in the tournament.
As the opening of the tournament draws closer, Pinnacle will likely post more groups of 30 or so, and possibly some head-to-head matchups.
"As it gets closer, we'll probably continue to break it down into more manageable chunks, and I'm sure we'll see a lot more action," Noble said.
Given the large number of entrants, it's probably appropriate to view the tournament as a lottery rather than an event you can actually handicap. Even so, Pinnacle's efforts have yielded the most competitive odds available on the WSOP.
"We could see a complete unknown win," Noble said. "But as far as World Series of Poker odds go, our odds are higher than any others. ... We did see (another offshore shop) put up 45-1 on Phil Hellmuth, and we got a big laugh out of that."
Among other well-known players on the board at Pinnacle: 1976-77 champ Doyle Brunson (545-1 to win), Annie Duke (722-1), 2000 champ Chris "Jesus" Ferguson (388-1), 2003 champ Chris Moneymaker (874-1) and defending champ Greg Raymer (800-1).
The best way to play WSOP propositions, according to Anthony Curtis, publisher of the Las Vegas Advisor consumer tip sheet, is to seek out a shop that offers a "field" bet -- a wager on all other players not listed. (Pinnacle does not currently have a field bet.)
"No. 1 is the numbers -- there's just so many people in the tournament that it's difficult to pick just one," Curtis said. "And No. 2, people are figuring out how to play no-limit hold 'em in a way that can take the hammer out of the hands of the top players. The idea is to play with a more aggressive style, use the ability to go all-in. ... It makes it more of a random result."
Curtis said "Kill Phil," a forthcoming poker book from his publishing company, Huntington Press, covers that very topic. (While "Phil" might bring to mind Hellmuth or Ivey, it evidently is a generic name designed to represent any top poker player who can be brought to his knees by using techniques outlined in the book.)
"I'd have a hard time picking a single guy to back (in the WSOP)," Curtis said. "I expect we'll see another new face emerge as the winner."
Fight game
Underdogs have snared their share of victories in boxing lately, with Winky Wright, Lamon Brewster, Ricky Hatton and Kevin McBride all scoring upsets in prominent fights, at least according to the betting line.
Backers of gritty and exciting Arturo Gatti hope that trend continues Saturday in his 140-pound title bout against Las Vegan Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Atlantic City.
Betting dollars have mostly flowed toward Mayweather in the pay-per-view showdown, although there is some indication that at least a bit of Gatti money is showing up in Las Vegas sports books.
An early Las Vegas line had Mayweather a minus-360 favorite (bettors risk $3.60 to win $1) to remain unbeaten by defeating Gatti, and we correctly predicted in this space on April 20 that the line would rise significantly.
As of Tuesday, Mayweather was listed as a minus-500 favorite at the Plaza downtown, with the odds on Gatti plus-375 -- high enough to give early Mayweather bettors the option of taking a freeroll on the fight.
Mayweather believers can still take a piece of their fighter at minus-400 at several shops, including the Palms, the Stardust and Leroy's, all of which have Gatti at plus-300. (Leroy's previously listed Mayweather as high as minus-550 before the line bounced back.)
Elsewhere (just a sampling), the Golden Nugget has Mayweather at minus-440, Gatti plus-350; Station Casinos have Mayweather minus-450, Gatti plus-325; and El Cortez has Mayweather minus-420, Gatti plus-320.
Although the minus-500/plus-375 spread at the Plaza might look unfavorable at first glance, it actually carries a highly competitive theoretical hold percentage, or house edge, of 3.9 percent -- which is lower than the house edge on a standard sports bet with a minus-110 vigorish.
The minus-400/plus-300 spread carries a house edge of 4.8 percent; the El Cortez's spread carries a house edge of 4.4 percent; and Station's spread on the fight checks in at 5 percent house edge.
The Golden Nugget is dealing one of the best (that is, most favorable for the bettor) lines on the fight we have seen, with a house edge of 3.3 percent.
Gamblers who want to bet the fight will go the entire 12 rounds should check out the Palms (will go 12, minus-135), while those who think it will not go the distance should look at the Stardust (won't go 12, plus-140).
The Palms also offers these propositions: Gatti to win by decision, 11-2; Gatti by knockout, 24-5; Mayweather by decision, even money; Mayweather by KO, 7-5; draw, 14-1.
Open wrap
Michael Campbell's victory in the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, N.C., confounded golf bettors, at least at Caesars Palace and its network of related sports book.
The Caesars Entertainment group of sports books in Nevada opened wagering on the U.S. Open on April 15 and offered adjusted odds to win after each round of the tournament.
A total of 2,309 wagers were accepted on the event by Caesars, according to a company representative, with a grand total of zero of them on Campbell, who outdistanced Tiger Woods and the rest of the field to win the year's second major.
Campbell's odds opened at 150-1 at Caesars properties, and as late as Saturday night, after the third round, he was listed at 12-1, yet still failed to attract any takers.
Caesars was slated to have odds up late Tuesday on the year's remaining major tournaments, the British Open and the PGA Championship.
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Yahoo! Games Broadens Focus with PC-to-Mobile, New Website
Published: 2005-06-21
 Yahoo! Games Broadens Focus with PC-to-Mobile, New Website
With Yahoo! Texas Hold 'em Poker, Yahoo! Games is offering its first PC-to-Mobile game that enables mobile phone players to play against Yahoo!'s huge community of casual gamers or other mobile players. With more PC-to-Mobile games scheduled and a planned relaunch of its website, Yahoo! Games is aiming to leverage its existing userbase while bringing in casual and hardcore gamers alike.
Since launching its mobile business this past March, Yahoo! Games has taken further steps to leverage its audience of casual gamers as well as to bring in more hardcore players. The company has launched its first PC-to-Mobile game, Yahoo! Texas Hold 'em Poker and a new website that will offer much more for the hardcore fan is currently getting its final touches.
During E3 last month, GameDAILY BIZ had the opportunity to meet up with the general manager of Yahoo! Games Geoff Graber to discuss the company's upcoming plans.
Mobile vs. Mobile and Mobile vs. PC
"PC-to-Mobile capabilities is really the big new thing... You can play on a mobile phone against people not only on other mobile phones on other carriers but also on our PC website community," said Graber. "There are thousands of users online anytime, day and night always playing on Yahoo! Poker. We think that's a huge game changer for the mobile multiplayer gaming space."
To make this cross-device connectivity possible, Yahoo! Games acquired Stadeon, Inc., in March. Stadeon's flagship product, Carousel, is what brings it all together. "Yahoo! understands the value of its large community and now letting its consumers play against any one of the 345 million Yahoo! users worldwide, anywhere, anytime and whether they are on a mobile device or their PC," commented John Cahill, Yahoo! Mobile's director of games operations and former CEO of Stadeon.
"The merger of mobile and online games offers a number of interesting possibilities," noted IDC analyst Schelley Olhava. "I think PC-to-mobile game play gives the wireless gamer an incentive for multi-player gaming, knowing that a base of PC online gamers are ready to play."
Importance of community
One aspect that Graber really stressed, and that Cahill alluded to above, is community. Yahoo! Games has also added customization/personalization options, so that each member of its huge community is more than just an online name.
"We have 23 million unique visitors coming to our site each month and we always have hundreds of thousands of people online playing on Yahoo! Games, playing multiplayer games like Poker. So the idea of always having somebody to play against [is great for our users]," said Graber.
He continued, "We've also added community and personalization features into the game. You can take your Yahoo! avatar into the game for the first time; you can decide what you want to look like with hair, skin color, etc. It also follows who you're chatting with in [Yahoo!] Messenger and a lot of other things. In the future we could do taunts with it and things like that, which are really exciting. So bringing that into the Poker game makes that not only a great personalization tool but also a community tool... and these pieces cross over to the mobile phone as well."
Yahoo! Games said that Yahoo! Poker will be followed by several other PC-to-Mobile titles later this year.
New website should expand the audience
The second part of the equation for Yahoo! Games is a completely revamped website, which they revealed at E3; the final version of the site should launch within the next few weeks. The new website has a stronger emphasis on video games content and file downloads.
"We've really completely changed the interface—much richer graphics, a whole new way of finding all the content you're looking for. Gamers are always looking for files to download, like trailers, mods and patches and everything else, so we've made that very clear and you can browse by category... you never have to wait for it and there are no subscription fees on Yahoo! Games for downloading a file," Graber explained. "Videos is another thing that we think is a critical piece for the future so we've put a lot of effort into bringing together a lot of great video content."
Much of Yahoo! Games' licensed content will be provided by GameSpot and some will come from the G4 network. However, Graber was quick to point out that Yahoo! Games will have content from its own internal production as well.
Although Yahoo!'s main audience has always been casual gamers, Graber hopes that the new website will appeal to more hardcore gamers as well. Furthermore, just because someone is into Doom 3, for example, doesn't mean that that person won't want to play something like Yahoo! Poker or Yahoo! Pool.
In addition, on the video games site Yahoo! should be able to capture more hardcore gamers with its Games-on-Demand service, which offers full PC games for rental via download. "I think you'll see us continuing to offer more games through that service as we work with publishers in the future," said Graber.
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