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Who's Next? Sorting out the WSOP favorites
Published: 2005-06-18
 Who's Next? Sorting out the WSOP favorites
Paul McGuire / Poker Player Newspaper
Who do you think is going to be the 2005 World Series of Poker Champion... a big time name like Daniel Negreanu or an unknown like 2003 champion Chris Moneymaker was when he took the crown?
I had a recent discussion with my brother about who has the best shot to win it all this year. We went through the list of our favorite pros and evaluated each of their chances. We soon discovered that even the best players in the world have a tough task ahead of them in July. Not only do they have to beat out over 6,000 other players, but they also have to play near-flawless poker for over a week straight, while catching sustained waves of luck and good fortune. Players from all over the world and from various walks of life will converge on Las Vegas in July with their eyes focused on a prize pool worth over $60 million.
In such a gigantic field, anybody can win. Although there is a vast difference in the skill level between the worst players in the tournament and the pre-eminent professionals in the world, the odds that the fishy guy in your home game winning the big one over Phil Ivey is a lot better than you think. Anything can happen in the first day of the World Series of Poker and this year the expected field is so big that there will be three Day Ones.
I separate players into two types of categories: online players and brick and mortar players. Then there's a third category, a rare hybrid group who play online and live in equal amounts of time. Those players have a better edge. Last year, plenty of pros griped about the looseness and unconventional style of play from the online qualifiers. That told me right away that they don't play online much where there are hordes of players who will play any two cards.
Greg Raymer is a good example of a hybrid player. He qualified online and had extensive experience against the super loose style of play on the internet. He also regularly played at Foxwoods Casino, near his hometown in Connecticut. Although he was not considered a professional when he entered last year's event, Raymer was not a stranger to tournament poker either. He made the final table at the World Poker Finals at Foxwoods a few years earlier.
Most of the online qualifiers had to grind their way through several levels of satellites with thousands of other players in order to win their seat. They are used to playing in large multi-table tournaments with 2,000 plus players. Seasoned professional tournament players, on the other hand, gain an advantage due to the spread out blind structure of the World Series of Poker. The pace of the game slows down in the first few days and the pros show intense discipline. They wait until the online action junkies lose their patience and make a crucial error for all their chips.
Former WSOP Champions
There hasn't been a repeat champion since 1988. Alas, history is against Greg Raymer (2004) winning again in July. In the year after they won their titles, Chris Moneymaker (2003) and Robert Varkonyi (2002) were both bounced on the first day of the tournament. They are long shots again this year.
Doyle Brunson (1976 & 1977) had an impressive run in last year's event and he's always a dangerous player in any tournament he enters. Along with Johnny Chan (1987 & 1988), they are both seeking out their third world championship and another bracelet to add to their collection. That's always an added incentive for Chan and Brunson.
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson (2000) is playing very well this year and is seeking his second world championship. He won a WSOP Circuit event, came in 2nd at the National Heads Up Championship, and placed 10th at the Belllagio's Five Star World Poker Classic. He also started up his own online poker site and plays there frequently.
Dan Harrington (1995) has written a new book about No Limit tournaments. He definitely knows his stuff and made the final table in the last two years. He's 4th on the WSOP career money list and a clear favorite again this year.
Phil Hellmuth (1989) is looking to make poker history. He will achieve a milestone with the next WSOP event he wins, which will make him the player with the most career bracelets. He's currently tied with Johnny Chan and Doyle Brunson who have nine each.
Carlos Mortensen (2001) won a World Poker Tour event this season and became the only player aside from Doyle Brunson to win a WSOP Championship and a WPT title. He cannot be overlooked along with other past champs: Scotty Nguyen (1998), Huck Seed (1996), and Tom McEvoy (1983).
Other Notable Professionals
T.J. Cloutier is the best tournament player never to win a WSOP title. He came close several times and is currently 6th on the WSOP career money list. Will this be T.J.'s year? Or will one of the younger players like Daniel Negreanu or Phil Ivey get their shot? Negreanu was last year's Player of the Year and made three final tables on the WPT this season. Phil Ivey has four WSOP bracelets and made the final table at the last WPT event at the Bellagio. You also have to look out for Tuan Le who is one of the hottest players around. Tuan Le won two titles on the current season of the WPT and earned over $4 million in prize money.
European Pros
Marcel Luske from the Netherlands is one of my favorite pros to watch. He's been considered one of Europe's top players for the last few years. He's been playing all over the world in 2005 and made the final table at events in Australia and Denmark. He has a legitimate chance to win multiple bracelets at the WSOP this year. His fellow countryman, Rob Hollnik, is also someone to watch out for. Hollnik won the Grand Final Event on the European Poker Tour in Monaco and recently made the final table at a WPT event. You also can't forget about Gus Hansen (Denmark), David 'Devilfish' Ulliot (England), and Martin de Knijff (Sweden). I feel sorry for anyone playing at their table, especially if they get a hold of a lot of chips early.
Female Pros
Annie Duke, Kathy Leibert, and Jen Harman are the top three female career money winners. They all regularly play in some of the highest cash games in Las Vegas. They each have a good shot this year, but I especially like Jen Harman's chances. Last year she was sick for most of the World Series. Jen's healthy now and looking to become the first woman to win a world championship.
Of course there are dozens of other professionals whom I didn't mention who could get hot. Chip Reese, Humberto Brenes, Howard Lederer, Erick Lindgren, John Juanda, and Erik Seidel could each inflict serious damage to other players in the tournament.
As I said earlier, it boils down to this: will a pro or an unknown win?
If you think a pro will pull out the victory, then you can make a strong argument for why twenty or thirty different players could win. If an unknown player (from online or someone who won a satellite in Vegas) takes home the 2005 World Series of Poker championship, then everyone will be quick to say that the winner was incredibly lucky to survive the largest field in history and against some of the best players of all time.
I think an unknown player is going to win this year because the "nobodies" definitely outnumber all the professionals. So, I'm going to pick my brother to win. Derek is currently plugging away online trying to win a seat. If you ask my brother who he likes, he'd quickly pick John Juanda. The professional player who I think could win it all this year is... Daniel Negreanu.
In two and half months, we get to find out if it's Derek or Daniel.
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Push Made To Legalize Poker
Published: 2005-05-04
 Push Made To Legalize Poker In N.C.
POSTED: 4:37 pm EDT May 4, 2005
UPDATED: 12:59 pm EDT May 5, 2005
RALEIGH, N.C. -- Texas Holdem may be sweeping the nation as the newest parlor game, but it and other versions of poker are still illegal in North Carolina.
That has prompted some poker aficionados and organizers of an area poker league to push for legalizing the card game in the Tar Heel State.
More than 2,100 people participate in the Poker Taverns League, which is based in the Triangle. Instead of betting money, players in league-sponsored games compete for gift certificates worth about $50 from whichever bar is hosting their game.
Because no money is wagered, bar owners and league officials maintain the poker games aren't gambling and should be allowed statewide.
Frank Wislow, the owner of The Point at Glenwood, spent more than $1,000 on felt-topped tables, chips and other equipment so his Raleigh bar could host Poker Taverns League games. The crowds the games draw are worth the investment, but he doesn't want to see that money go down the drain by having the games outlawed.
"We're certainly not trying to violate any laws, and I don't feel we are," Wislow said. "From what I understand, the Wake County (district attorney) doesn't, either."
But not all North Carolina law enforcement authorities agree.
State Alcohol Law Enforcement agents recently busted a similar tournament at Ham's Restaurant, in Greensboro, where players competed for a $10,000 trip to Las Vegas. Criminal charges were later dropped because a state attorney had told game organizers it was legal to play.
"Unfortunately, we have to deal with county-by-county understandings of the law and interpretations of the law," said Ryan Turner, one of the organizers of Poker Taverns League.
Durham lawyer Marcus Hill wants to remove the ambiguity and have a state judge declare that poker is exempt from North Carolina's anti-gambling laws.
"Poker's not gambling. Poker's a game of skill," Hill said, noting players need to know how to read others' faces.
He represents the owners of Joker Club, who filed suit last fall against former Durham County District Attorney Jim Hardin because Hardin opposed the opening of a poker gaming room on Ferrell Road.
"The activity proposed by your client does not comply with North Carolina law," Hardin wrote in a Sept. 24, 2004, letter to Hill. "Please inform him that I shall instruct local law enforcement agencies to enforce (the) existing statute as illegal activity is identified."
Hardin, who last month was appointed to a superior court judgeship, told NBC-17 recently that his stance on poker hasn't changed.
"It's my opinion that it's a game of chance," he said. "Every time a card is thrown, regardless of whether that's the first card or the 51st card, you don't know what that's going to be."
Kim Hanisak, who won the Poker Taverns League points championship last season, sees the game as a combination of luck and skill.
"You have to have decent cards. You can bluff, but you obviously can't bluff all the time," Hanisak said.
She plays poker most nights, and while acknowledging its addictive allure, she said she would prefer if the games were legalized.
"It may be bad for me, but I'd like it," she said with a laugh.
Reporter: Tina Tenret
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