This post is about two hands from recent WSOP coverage on ESPN which got me yelling at the tv.  Both hands had players flopping trips, and both hands had me yelling at the tv, but in one I was yelling because I thought the player screwed up and in the other because I thought he played it so well.

Hand 1 involved Bryan Devonshire (known as Devo to his many fans) and Ben Lamb (known as Benba and this year’s player of the year).  I have played with both of these guys and know both of them are very good poker players, so my disparagement of how Devo played this hand is in no way to be taken as an affront to him – hell, even I have been known to make a mistake.

The blinds were 100k/200k with a 30k ante.  Devo started the hand with just over 6 million or 30 BBs in chips and Benba had him well covered with over 16 million in chips.  Devo raised from the CO with JTo to just over 2 BBs (probably 450k) and Benba, who likes to defend his big blind and can play tricky, called out of the BB with a hand I don’t really remember but also doesn’t matter – let’s say he had Ax.  The flop comes out JJ5 with two spades.  Benba checks, Devo makes a standard c-bet of just over 500k and Benba check/raises him to 1.4 million.  So the pot at this point now has somewhere around 3.2 million and Devo has just over 5 million chips behind.  Devo decided to just shove and Benba obviously had to fold.

Recreational players would likely see Devo stacking his chips and finally seeing someone get the better of Ben and cheer.  But I was yelling at Devo and throwing my couch cushions at the tv.  Instead of cheering Devo for the chips he was gaining I was berating him for the millions of chips he possibly let slip from his fingers.  I think Devo’s best play by far in this spot was simply to call Benba’s raise and try and extract as many chips as he could.  Here’s why:

Once Ben made his check/raise on the flop, his range of hands consists of 3 distinct possibilities.  The first possibility is that he has a hand that crushes us such as JQ-JA, or 55.  The second possibility is that he has a flush draw such as As9s which will beat us about 30% of the time if we go to the river.  And the third possibility is that he has an absolute bluff (which is what he actually did have here).  The problem with Devo’s shove is that it gets the hands that we absolutely crush and want to stay in the hand to fold, whereas the hands that dominate us will never fold and the hands that we really don’t want to allow to see the river with will likely call here as well just because they will have the correct pot odds to do so.

Since Devo had a hand which he simply would be unable to fold given his dwindling chipstack, I think his best play was just to call Ben’s raise on the flop.  The beauty with calling there is that Devo has position.  If Ben is bluffing, the only way he can win the hand on the turn or river is to bet at it which means that Devo picks up those extra chips.  If Ben has a draw, then he wasn’t folding to Devo’s shove anyway, so paying him off isn’t a mortal sin.  And if Ben has Devo crushed from the get-go then no matter what it was a cooler.  By shoving the flop, Devo forced Ben to fold his bluffs, which in a late position vs. blind battle like this one was probably the biggest part of Ben’s range.

The next hand is how I think Devo should have played his hand.  In this hand there are 22 players left and Phil Collins opens A3o from UTG+2 which folds around to Aleksandr Mozhnyakov in the BB with J9o.  In this case the flop came 336 and Mozhnyakov lead out on both the Q turn and the 8 river (I don’t mind how he played this hand by the way).  Collins on the other hand, just smooth-called both the flop and turn before raising the river and extracted the most money possible by doing so.  I embedded Collin’s mastery below so you can see how I think Devo should have played his hand.  His hand starts at just before the 40 minute mark.

I’ll keep watching as the November 9 plays down to a champion next week on ESPN.  If I see any interesting hands, I’ll try to post about them in a future post.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Well, that’s what you expect at the WSOP, right? Only the very best players compete in the event? That’s just not the case. The Main Event has always attracted a healthy portion of wealthy businessmen looking for excitement, celebrities looking to raise their profile, or players who built the bank roll to buy-in but just don’t have the skills. These players are mixed in with some major sharks, yes, but don’t get the idea that the Main Event is the best of the best. All you need is $10,000 to get in and, the truth is, a lot of bad players have $10,000.

These kinds of players, from the excitement seekers to the players taking a stab, can be found in any tournament, live or online. You might be playing for profit, playing your odds, making reads, but that doesn’t mean everyone else is.

Profitable play in a tournament is determined by countless factors of strategy, but don’t forget this one. You’re already categorizing your opponents based on their playing styles, their hand ranges, and what they’re capable of. What I’m suggesting is that you categorize what motivates a player to play: are they here to gamble, to get a rush, to get lucky, to get famous? Many of these motivators make a player un-bluff-able, in which case: stick to tight-aggressive. Or trap. Or slow play (though this is rarely recommended). And, rather important to remember: as these players make their rail exit and the field thins, switch gears to deal with the remaining, more-skilled opponents.

5. Hold’Em Poker for Advanced Players, Slansky, Malmuth

The opening line in this book’s summary is: “Texas Hold ’em is not an easy game to play well.” Well, that’s true! Originally published in 1988, this book changed the poker scene forever. It’s teachings and instructions are likely known by many players today who have never read the book, simply because of how far this book penetrated the scene. In 1999, Slansky and Malmuth revisited the book and updated it for today’s game. You don’t want to miss it.

4. Championship No Limit & Pot Limit Hold ‘Em, Cloutier, McEvoy

T.J. Cloutier, one of the early road gamblers similar to Doyle Brunson, has cashed at the WSOP 55 times. Not surprisingly, you’ll find his name in the Poker Hall of Fame; he was inducted in 2006. In this book, he joins up with Tom McEvoy (four WSOP bracelets) to write about tournaments, and how to become a champion. Cloutier, it is worth noting, has won more recorded poker tournaments than anyone else in history. His advice is verifiably excellent.

3. Caro’s Book of Poker Tells, Caro

In the world of poker books, this will likely be one of the first you come across. In this classic (classic, because though it was published in 1984, it is still just as relevant), Caro reveals a laundry list of tells which have made him wealthy for decades. These tells will make you enough money in one session to buy a cart of these books. True, these tells won’t work against the 5% of elite poker professionals, but you might be amazed by how many of these tells are applicable to seemingly unreadable opponents.

2. Doyle Brunson’s Super System, Brunson

Does this book need an introduction? Doyle Brunson is a legend, still living, and his book has something to do with it. Brunson’s playing style in his early road traveling days was downright mythical: nobody understood it, everyone wanted at it, while Brunson built himself stacks of bills. In 1979, Brunson did something which he is still criticized for (but he’s okay with it): in Super System, Brunson gave away his secrets of play, why he plays the way he does, and the many tips and tricks that has earned him a fortune many times over for the better part of a century. You haven’t studied poker unless you’ve read Super System.

1. The Theory of Poker and No Limit Hold ‘Em: Theory and Practice, Slansky

These two books, which could easily be combined into one big book, are not for beginners. In fact, they’re not even intermediate: these are written for the serious, committed player who looks to improve his game every chance he gets. The Theory of Poker focuses on limit poker, but all of its lessons are applicable to NLH as well (you’ll just have to adjust your math accordingly). But instead of adjusting calculations, go ahead and get No Limit Hold ‘Em: Theory and Practice. The two of these poker books combined have been, for at least this author, the difference between barely scraping a profit to pulling in a livable income. These books lay an unshakable foundation, which produces winning results at all but the very toughest of games. These aren’t light reads, but every page you digest is money in your wallet.

Most experts list their hourly rates, but a few require a phone call to discover their fee. Experts list their available schedule for booking, and customers sign-up for it right there on the website. Of course, the question every customer will ask is, “Is it really worth it?” The crux of the business is that it makes available to any website visitor experts who otherwise are completely untouchable. Through an easy transaction and scheduling system, resulting in a video Skype call, expertinsight.com is creating a more refined market place. Previously, these types of appointments have only been made through the human network and referrals. With expertinsight.com, all you need is a wallet (with a hefty amount of cash available too, that is).

Would you like an hour training session with Mike McDonald, one of the world’s most successful poker tournament players? For $800 an hour, he is all yours. Phil Gordan, who has worked as an ESPN commentator as well as experienced tournament winnings in excess of $3 million, can be video chatting with you for $500 an hour. Patrik Antonius, on the other hand, charges $6,000 an hour and Tom Dwan just a hair more, at $6,500 an hour. Those who were unreachable stars are now, thanks to your expertinsight.com, at your fingertips.

Here is an obvious example of a semi-bluff-able situation.

• You hold a jack and a queen, off-suit. You are in middle position (second to act).
• The flop comes Ks 10h 6c.
• You now have an open-ended straight draw (if a 9 or an ace comes up, you’ll get quite excited).
• The player in first position checks.

You now have two options:

1. Check
You can check here, in hopes that the last player to act checks as well. Then, you could get a free card on the turn and see if you hit your straight or at least a pair. This can be a bad idea: if you have all checked the flop, and you hit your straight on the turn, your opponents aren’t about to call any big bets, and you’re going to take home at best a marginal pot. Also, if you miss your straight (which will happen most of the time here), you aren’t going to be able to bluff anybody out of the pot very easily. You have not represented strength. This can be a good idea: you believe that one of your opponents holds a made hand (in this case, maybe K10 or AK) and you don’t think you can push him off of it.

2. Semi-bluff
You can also semi-bluff here. Why is it a semi-bluff? If you get any callers in this situation (a rainbow flop, with a high card), chances are somebody has a made hand (at least a pair) and you are not the favorite to win. However, you have a chance of outdrawing your opponent for the better hand. So, it is a semi-bluff: not the favorite, could win.

If a 9 or an ace comes, you will hit your straight, and dominate your opponent. Yes, you are behind, but instead of letting the cards determine your action, you are a telling story (I have a strong hand), and telling it convincingly (I just bet four times the big blind), and you can use that to your advantage.

The semi-bluff can be a fantastic idea for many reasons:

1. If you do not hit, you can often push your opponents out of the pot on the turn or river. You are telling the story of a strong hand: use your opponent’s perception of you against them, and force them to fold with another strong bet.
2. If you hit your straight, you are going to win a big pot. On the turn and river, you can now make call-able bets, feign weakness, make the same bet as you did on the flop, put out a min-bet, bet strongly into an aggressive player: there are quite a number of ways to milk this pot! The semi-bluff is how you win big pots with straights and flushes.
3. Your bet will force your opponents to slow down. If you totally missed, you are likely going to get a free river card. Your opponents aren’t going to want to bet into the aggressor: so let it ride, and check out your final card for free.
4. You are controlling the pot: you will lose a little some of the time, and win a lot some of the time. If you are not in control of the pot, and are simply calling with draws and over cards, you are going to lose much more than if you semi-bluff a controllable amount of chips. A passive player is a losing player: take control.
5. You are confusing your opponents. Semi-bluffing will mix up your range of hands, and cause your opponents to be confused by your play. This is a good thing! Surprise your opponents every now and then; keep them on their toes, and stay unpredictable.
6. When you hit your hand, your opponent is quite often going to read you for another hand. In the above situation, the 9 or ace comes and you continue betting, your opponent will often believe the 9 did not improve your hand, and will put you on top pair (AK), two pair (K10), or the like. This is an enormous advantage, not to be underestimated, and how you win big pots.

Remember that knowing your opponent, reading their tendencies, and making good judgment on their style of play is the best information to inform your move to semi-bluff or not. If you think you can win a pot with one bet, semi-bluff away.

You have two types of equity in a hand like this: your hand equity (not that high, since you don’t have a hand and are hoping to hit a card) and your bet equity (high, if you think you can get everyone to fold). Having two types of equity is a whole lot more valuable than one type. If all you do is wait for your card to hit, you are playing one-dimensional, and often unprofitably.

Situations where it might not be the best to semi-bluff is against a table of novices (who will call anything) or a loose-aggressive game where every semi-bluff will be met with a steep raise, a type of pressure most semi-bluffs can’t withstand. Another situation is where you have flopped a flush draw of very low cards: over cards can too easily call and will beat you the majority of the time. Look for mediocre flops (middle range, varied suits) and at least competent players to try the semi-bluff on.

The semi-bluff: a powerful tool not to be forgotten! Brush up on your skills, put this shiny tactic in your arsenal, and bring home the bacon.

Here for you, from my secret vault of dishonorable tactics, are 9 proven methods to put your opponent on tilt:

1. Make an amazing bet which convinces your opponent that you really do have the best hand! Then show your bluff. Include with a wry comment like, “Please come again.”
2. Insult your opponent. One of the oldest war tactics, used by conquering heroes since the earth was young. I suggest making “hee-haw!” sounds after a player plays a hand poorly. Or pull out this little gem: “If you were twice as smart, you’d still be a stupid player.”
3. Slow roll. That’s when you’ve got the nuts, pretend your opponent has won, force him show his hand first, and then make a big deal of turning your monster, winning hand over. It’s a jerk thing to do, and a fantastic method to put your opponent on tilt.
4. Read your opponent’s hand. Then call it out. If you’re able to correctly call out your opponent’s hands a few times, they won’t be playing you with a logical strategy. They’ll play back at you with a defensive “I’ve got to eliminate this player because he has me read” strategy. Also known as “slow motion train wreck” strategy. Let their chips derail into your stack.
5. Talk incessantly in a high pitched and/or nasal voice.
6. Talk about your cats, what you fed them for breakfast, what time you are going to walk them later, how many friends your cats have, and the three books of history behind your furry friend’s name. (You don’t need a cat to do this. Just a terrible story nobody wants to hear.)
7. Bonus! Tell your cat story in a high pitched, nasal voice after slow rolling your opponent.
8. Act like you’re about to throw your hand away, gesturing repetitively with your cards as if you’re about to release them towards the dealer. Then when it gets to you, shove all-in. You’ll upset the table more than a stink bomb in seat 6.
9. Call the clock on a player who has just been dealt a hand.
10. Pull this one-liner out after a player who thinks they’re good, loses a big pot: “Ladies and gentleman, this is not a player to learn from.”

If you’ve got any other cruel, callous, or cold-hearted moves to put a player on tilt, let me know in the comments!

Super bonus! To finish up, here is one of the most egregious verbal assaults you might ever watch. It is truly amazing:

Click here to view the embedded video.

But those cards can mean a whole lot when your bluff has gone wrong. You know that sickly, “I just ate a bad burrito” feeling? That’s your gut instinct going haywire when your bluff flies off the rails and explodes in a fiery disaster. And, thanks to televised poker, we can watch these disasters again and again! Poker professionals (at least that’s what they call themselves) are recorded all over the place, trying their best to gun down their opponent with chips, only to get eaten alive by a hero call or a sick read.

So check out some terrible bluffs, by the “pros” themselves, posted here for your viewing pleasure. Here are the top 5 most backfiring bluffs online:

(1) You’re sitting at the table, deep into a tournament with only a few players left, and dealt KK. Whatever way you look at it, that’s a nice place to be. Well, it’s not a nice place to be when your opponent flops a set… Watch Mark Ristine slowly combust over the course of this hand:

Click here to view the embedded video.

(2) Pocket kings can work out okay though! Darus Suharto liked his ace-queen a little too much here, however, and bluffed his way into (and lost) a monster 28 million chip pot at the 2009 World Series of Poker:

Click here to view the embedded video.

(3) Below, you can watch one of the most insane poker bluffs ever, by celebrated Viktor Blom. It’s good to be committed to making a convincing bluff, but it’s not good to be committed to make a terribly timed, definitely-going-to-lose bluff:

Click here to view the embedded video.

(4) Do you like flushes? I like flushes. I especially like king high flushes when I’m heads up. But do you know what Justin Bonomo likes better than king high flushes heads up? Jason Mercier bluffing his entire stack, making an almost quarter million dollar pot…into Bonomo’s king high flush. Sick hand, terribly played!

Click here to view the embedded video.

(5) Gavin Smith, not my favorite poker player (not many people’s), can sometimes play some really good cards. Maybe I don’t give him enough credit. But check this video out: put under some serious pressure, against a stone cold bluff, and with only his 5 making a pair, Smith makes one of the best up-against-a-bluff-decisions you’ll see.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Backfiring bluffs…they’re like car wrecks. You just have to look as you drive by. Do you have a favorite backfiring bluff left off the list? Share in the comments!

But let me repeat that last sentence for you again – - “bankroll management is a way of ensuring that your poker funds will last long enough to give you a reasonable shot at profitability”.  I used every typographical highlight that I could just to emphasize the point that Bankroll Mgmt. does not GUARANTEE profit, it simply gives you a better chance at it.  Why?  Well, veteran players can assure us that if you have 30+ full buy-ins for a cash table, 50+ buy-ins for a Sit-n-Go, or 100+ buy-ins for a Tournament (or whatever recommendations you happen to be reading and following), that you have an ample cash supply to outplay the short-term ‘variance’ and see long-term profitability from your solid method of play.  I’m going to suggest that in and of themselves, BRM guidelines that you follow blindly without regard for your skill level, game selection, or other basic considerations will be about as helpful to you as shotgun shells with no gun to shoot them.  Even if you have 500 buy-ins for a game in which you are the worst player, or among the worst players, you will lose.  It will take much longer and you’ll suffer more in the process, but you will lose.

Buy-in guidelines aren’t the key in this whole concept, to be honest.  Like most things, people want a quick fix that will work consistently, so simple rules to be followed have somehow suggested that this is how “smart” poker players operate.  And I’m not saying that the really skilled players among us deviate too far from these guidelines.  What I am saying is that skilled players also realize that if they want to make a profit, they have to be demonstrably better than those at their tables, so game selection is really the key.  I cannot stress this enough:  Play at the highest level that you can beat – that’s the most sure Bankroll Management plan of all.  Most likely if you can beat a given limit but are not rolled for it yet, you will be soon.  Conversely if you are rolled for a limit but cannot beat it, you need to find another game.  If you are beating a game but feel like you should be beating a bigger game, put in the time and effort until your results can back up your feelings, because the rest of us don’t really care when you sit down whether or not you feel like you can beat our game.  If you’re right, we have to pay you off, those are the rules.  If you’re wrong, you’re paying us, end of story.

My challenge as you consider what Bankroll Management means for you is to identify the type of game that you believe you can beat, and set about keeping thorough records (keep them yourself, don’t rely solely on software to do it for you) to demonstrate how you are doing in this game.  If you want to play and beat $2NL, that fine – just keep records.  If you want to play and beat low limit MTT’s, that’s fine – just keep records.  If you want to beat $25PLO or the $2/$4 10-Game Mix or whatever your game of choice is, that’s fine – just keep records.  Prove to yourself that you’ve found your sweet spot in the poker universe, and the money will absolutely take care of itself.  You’ll never need to consider BRM Guidelines again if you know where you fit in the food chain.  Let us know if this concept describes your experience as a poker player, and Good Luck at the Tables!

“A chip and a chair” is all you need to make your comeback. And in 2011, there are already some serious underdogs writing their own comeback stories …

Chris Moneymaker
The one-time-lucky, seven-year-bust, comeback-accountant

Who doesn’t know the story of Chris Moneymaker? He is likely the single greatest reason for poker’s popularity boom in the last 8 years. As a total unknown in 2003, and working as an accountant in Tennessee, Moneymaker bought into a $39 satellite tournament on PokerStars. He ended up winning a seat a the World Series of Poker Main Event, the most revered and coveted tournament in the world, and became a legend.

Moneymaker bested a field of 838 players. In the final heads-up match, he faced Sammy Farha, a well-known and highly successful poker celebrity. Moneymaker took first place, and the enormous $2.5 million grand prize. He quit his job to become a professional poker player, and went on to live the dream!

But, Moneymaker was a total bust.

From 2005 through most of 2008, Moneymaker didn’t record just about any live tournament cash worth talking about. In 2008, he recorded two cashes for just over $150k. In 2009, he recorded one cash for $15k. Considering living expenses, and regular poker losses, these types of cashes after 4 years of running dry were nothing but blips on the radar. (2010? No real cashes.) People have looked at Moneymaker as an amateur who got lucky once, and just didn’t have what it takes to be a regular winner. Generating mostly losses for seven years (not like he couldn’t afford to) does not earn you respect.

Enter 2011… Moneymaker hired a mental coach. He began leaning on his experience of 8 years of regular play. He developed strategies, and studies regularly. Moneymaker has decided to stop being a lucky player, and start being a smart one. The result? 2011 is only three months in, and he won second place in the National Heads up Championship (to the tune of a cool $300,000) and 11th place in the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure Main Event (for a respectable $130,000). In these three short months, he has pulled in more significant tournament money than in the entire seven years prior.

His rate of winning far exceeds anything he has ever accomplished to date, and his consistent performances suggest a totally new style of play. With determination, and the willingness to invest in developing his skill, Moneymaker has taken a whole new tack and completely upended all the negative opinions. Moneymaker is on the comeback trail, and just might be earning the respect of poker professionals by the end of 2011.

Patrik Antonius
The Finnish Rollercoaster

2009 was the year of Patrik Antonius. Up $9 million, almost all of it in online winnings, the Finnish pro put up a stellar performance. But later that year, he admitted in an interview that he “lost millions, millions, millions of dollars with other stuff last year.”

2010 didn’t get any better. He lost $3.6 million in the year from high stakes cash games alone, going nowhere about as fast as you can go. In addition to his poker losses, Antonius reportedly lost millions in sports bets, and millions on the golf course. To cap it all off, Antonius began suffering seriously from his back problems, and was forced to attend rehabilitation sessions twice a day. Antonius summed it all up pretty simply: “I hate these moments when everything just goes bad.”

That’s what they call a tailspin.

Enter 2010… Antonius plays Draw Poker. A lot of Draw Poker. It’s March, and he’s won more almost $2 million at this game alone. With his other online poker efforts, he pulled in by the end of February a huge $3 million in profit. That’s more than Moneymaker made in one of the world’s largest tournaments in 2003!

Let’s put this in perspective: last year in March, Antonius was negative $3 million. That is a $6 million difference year-to-date. That is more money than most people will earn in two lifetimes! Antonius credits his intense focus and work ethic for his ability to create such a turnaround. But come on Patrik, what poker secret do you know that we don’t? Regardless, we’ve only got respect for a player who can comeback like this.

Just remember poker players: no matter how bad it gets (losing $3 million in three months is pretty bad!), there is always another comeback story waiting to be written. All you need is a chip and a chair…

Chris Moneymaker photo, The Telegraph
Patrik Antonius photo, Poker Player.co.uk

So far this blog has said nothing that you don’t (or shouldn’t) know, but I wanted us to consider together what will happen the next time that we are playing our normal, tight-solid game, and seemingly all the breaks are going our way.  Some might call it a “rush”, a “hot streak”, “lucky”, or whatever, but the reality is that good results can and will clump together in some places, and when they do it seems like the deck is just blatantly hitting us in the face.  We focus on what to do when the breaks are going against us – - avoiding tilt, switching games, stopping altogether for a break – - but when they are for us, the profit potential is so high that we’d be foolish NOT to have a plan.

My suggestion for you when everything is falling into place is to never be like your know-it-all Vegas buddy.  He’s got a system for everything, it seems!  He knows how to bet horses, roulette, blackjack, craps, he knows all the lingo, and he always comes home a loser.  Why?  It could be a lot of things, but one thing that I’ll guarantee you doesn’t help him is his “stop-win” limit.  Basically, his stop-win limit tells him that if he shows up to the Blackjack table with $100, he will quit when either
A) He has lost all $100 (they never stop where they say they will), or
B) He has won $50, bringing his total stack to $150.

BUT, you and I both know that he won’t win more often than he loses, and even if he’s very skilled and it’s 50/50, he’ll win $50 for every time he loses $100.  Mathematically, there’s no difference between that and walking up to the table, lighting $25 on fire, and walking away.  That is why poker games and poker players are different, and why planning for your rushes matters.  As a poker player, you are not playing the house, you are playing individual, unique, mistake-prone individuals, and many of them will make far too many errors by playing weak cards and chasing slim draws.  You have the option to play them until they quit, you quit, or they are broke.

So this my recommendation for today: NEVER, EVER, EVER choose option #2!  Never quit when your best customers are prepared to keep playing!  If you are playing online, mark them, study them, exploit them, follow them – - poker is a ruthless meritocracy at its heart, and you are holding up your end of the bargain by playing well and taking money off of the less-informed or less-skilled masses.  Rushes will come not at random, but when the fishiest fish in the tank are around, so the best way to plan for your rushes is to never plan on stopping at a certain win amount or a certain time!  If you have other commitments to tend to (family, etc.) and time is limited, play a sit-and-go.  Those at least have a pretty set time frame that everyone implicitly agrees to before cards are in the air.  But if you’re a cash game or MTT player, always prepare for the rush by being ready and able to play for as long as is necessary.  You owe it to your bankroll to pad it when able.  Let us know if this has been true for you, and as always, Good Luck at the Tables!

I just thought this could illustrate what rushes can really do!!